Gold Bulls Fight Back: XAUUSD Rebounds from Demand as Fed Hike Odds Plunge to 21%

Gold (XAUUSD) is staging a bullish recovery on the H1 timeframe after a sharp September correction, with price rebounding from the 4,105–4,115 demand zone and reclaiming previous structure. The move follows weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which has reduced market expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike to approximately 21%, providing support for the precious metal.

The H1 chart shows a clear bullish change of character (CHOCH) around the 4,150 area, with the current price action reaching the 4,165–4,175 pullback zone. This zone is now the key area to watch: holding above it would keep the bullish recovery structure intact. Key levels include 4,150–4,160 as near-term structure support, 4,105–4,115 as major demand and bullish invalidation, 4,200–4,205 as an intermediate upside objective, and 4,218–4,228 as main H1 resistance. Despite the recovery, the U.S. dollar remains firm and Treasury yields are still elevated, keeping upside pressure uneven.

The next major catalyst is the September FOMC Minutes, scheduled for release on October 7. Markets will scrutinize the minutes for signals on whether policymakers still see the need for further tightening later this year. A clean H1 break and hold above 4,175 would strengthen the continuation case toward 4,200–4,205 and potentially 4,218–4,228. Conversely, a loss of 4,150 with strong bearish displacement would weaken the recovery structure and open the door for a deeper move back toward the 4,105–4,115 demand zone.