Robredo, Baste Duterte Emerge Top Presidential Bets in 2028 — Survey

The ongoing evolution of the Business environment marked another decisive turn today. MANILA, Philippines — Former vice president Leni Robredo and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte emerged as the leading presidential candidates whom respondents preferred under two different 2028 election scenarios, reflecting a fragmented and fluid electorate marked by opposition consolidation and cross-partisan voter shifts, according to a Tangere survey released Wednesday. According to latest observations, participants are closely evaluating both immediate and forward-looking repercussions.

MANILA, Philippines — Former vice president Leni Robredo and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte emerged as the leading presidential candidates whom respondents preferred under two different 2028 election scenarios, reflecting a fragmented and fluid electorate marked by opposition consolidation and cross-partisan voter shifts, according to a Tangere survey released Wednesday. Robredo led the expanded field with 29 percent when she and Sen. Raffy Tulfo were included, while Baste Duterte led with 29 percent in a scenario that excluded both Robredo and Tulfo. In the expanded field, Baste Duterte placed second with 22 percent, followed by Sen. Bong Go with 18 percent and Tulfo with 14 percent. The survey was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3, immediately after Baste Duterte appeared before the Senate impeachment court during the trial of his siter, Vice President Sara Duterte. Tangere said the findings pointed to a heavily fragmented electorate, with 37 percent of respondents identifying themselves as neutral or uncommitted. Duterte supporters accounted for 31 percent, while Marcos or administration supporters and Robredo or Liberal Party supporters each comprised 16 percent of the electorate. In the first scenario, Baste Duterte registered 29 percent, narrowly ahead of Go at 26 percent. Former senator Bam Aquino placed third with 20 percent, followed by Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian at 10 percent and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. at 5 percent. When Robredo and Tulfo were added to the field, Baste Duterte's support fell to 22 percent and Go's to 18 percent, while Robredo moved into first place with 29 percent. Tangere said Robredo's entry “instantly” unified the opposition, with the former vice president capturing 29 percent of the presidential preference in the expanded scenario. The survey also found a significant shift among Marcos and administration supporters. In the first scenario, Gatchalian captured 40 percent of administration voters, while Teodoro received 30 percent, with the remainder distributed among other candidates. In the expanded field, 45 percent of administration supporters shifted their preference to Robredo, although Tangere noted that this remained short of a majority and indicated continuing division within the bloc. The pro-Duterte vote was likewise divided. Among self-identified Duterte supporters, Baste Duterte received 56 percent in the first scenario, while Go captured 33 percent. The remaining Duterte supporters either chose other options or abstained. Tangere also found that Go drew support beyond the Duterte base, including from Marcos or administration supporters, Liberal Party supporters and neutral voters. The entry of Tulfo also affected the Duterte-aligned candidates. Tulfo received 14 percent in the expanded field, while Baste Duterte's support declined from 29 percent to 22 percent and Go's from 26 percent to 18 percent. Tangere said its cross-tabulation showed male supporters of Baste Duterte and Go in the National Capital Region and Balance Luzon, together with self-identified neutral voters, shifting to Tulfo. The survey also showed a potential Robredo-Aquino tandem gaining strong support. Among Robredo supporters in the expanded scenario, 70 percent selected Bam Aquino as their preferred vice president, while 26 percent chose Sen. Risa Hontiveros. Aquino consequently placed second overall in the vice-presidential race in the expanded field with 23 percent, behind Sen. Robin Padilla's 28 percent. Padilla led the vice-presidential preferences in both scenarios, receiving 29 percent in the first and 28 percent in the expanded field. Tangere said seven to eight out of 10 voters who supported either Go or Baste Duterte selected Padilla as their preferred vice president, indicating strong alignment within the broader Duterte base. The survey also found strong support for a potential Gatchalian-Hontiveros tandem, with 85 percent of respondents who chose Gatchalian for president also selecting Hontiveros for vice president. Tangere founder, president and CEO Martin Xavier D. Peñaflor said the findings showed that voters were weighing candidate pairings, regional appeal and broader political alignments rather than relying solely on traditional party lines. “With 37 percent of respondents identifying as neutral, the uncommitted swing vote remains the single most decisive factor that will shape the 2028 electoral landscape,” Peñaflor said. The non-commissioned survey covered 1,800 respondents nationwide and had a reported margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. It was administered through a mobile-based respondent application using stratified random sampling with quota-based sampling. The respondents were distributed across the country, with 12 percent from the National Capital Region, 23 percent from Northern Luzon, 22 percent from Southern Luzon, 20 percent from the Visayas and 23 percent from Mindanao.

Market & Strategic Implications

Beyond immediate headlines, market participants are weighing secondary effects. The intersection of capital allocations, regulatory scrutiny, and shifting macroeconomic postures continues to elevate risk sensitivity across comparable assets and jurisdictions.

As further clarity emerges in upcoming briefings, institutional observers emphasize unit economics, policy enforcement, and counterparty exposure as primary barometers for long-term trajectory.