Shell's Refinery Profits Set to Double as Global Fuel Shortages Drive Prices to Record Highs

Shell announced on Wednesday that its refineries are expected to nearly double their profit per barrel of fuel in the third quarter, forecasting a refining margin of $42 per barrel for the July to September period. This projection comes amid record fuel prices driven by global shortages following the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia.

The forecast margin is a significant jump from the $24 per barrel earned in the second quarter and surpasses the previous high of about $28 per barrel in mid-2022. The energy supermajor's trading update underscores how geopolitical disruptions have tightened fuel supplies, pushing refining profits to unprecedented levels.

The anticipated profit surge is likely to draw political and public scrutiny, as consumers face elevated fuel costs and a broader cost-of-living crisis. It also raises questions about the resilience of global energy supply chains and the role of major oil companies in addressing energy security. Shell's final third-quarter results, due later this month, will be closely watched by investors and policymakers alike.